DeepSouth Africa · Zambia · Namibia · Mozambique · Malawi · sources last checked 26 Oct 2026
Regional power trade
Which physical, commercial and regulatory constraints limit electricity trade and co-investment through Southern African interconnectors, and which decisions would relieve them?
A generator in one country selling to a buyer in another needs a licence at home, market rules on both sides, and transmission capacity in every country between them. Each of those is a decision by a different institution.
What the records cannot yet show, including how much trade each blocker holds back, is gathered in one place: evidence limits.
Where it happens: infrastructure and documented constraints
The stations, lines and border posts this area's records name. Select a marker to open its record.
3 documented constraints and 2 reforms and projects have a place on this map. 14 other records are not drawn: they have no single location, or no source for their position has been found yet.
Constraint observedReform or projectApproximate position: a stand-in (see list)Lines between markers are straight, not real routes.Power lines of 220 kV and above
Stand-in: ZiZaBoNa is named for the four countries that meet near Kazungula. Its route is not in the records, so the marker stands in for the project, not for a site on it. Wikipedia, Kazungula, Botswana
Stand-in: SAPP-K-0001 cites SAPP placing the bottleneck at the Zimbabwe–Zambia interconnectors (and, in November 2025 and January 2026, also Botswana–Zimbabwe) without naming a line. The marker sits on that border at Kariba as a stand-in; it does not say which interconnector is constrained. Laurence Wilse-Samson, The African Economy: The Growth Century
Institutions are those the records name; where a quoted source says what one does on a reform, that role is shown on the reform's page. Positions checked 2026-10-26. Outlines: Natural Earth (public domain). Power lines, railways and roads: OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL 1.0). The map places records; it is evidence for nothing, and a marker's shape comes from the record, not the place.
From above
Each image shows one place on one day, north up, at 10 metres a pixel. It shows the place, not congestion, delays, progress or use.
Only figures already in the records, one measure per chart. Dots are not joined: the periods are selected, not a series. Figures that measure different things are set side by side in a table.
Share of matched energy that was traded, SAPP competitive marketsAll competitive markets: 37.0% to 74.0% (7 periods). Day-ahead market: 27.9% to 75.1% (2 periods).
all competitive marketsday-ahead market
Coverage. Eight months, the SAPP monthly reports that could be retrieved; December 2025 and July 2026 were not found.
What this does not establish. SAPP's reports attribute the untraded share to central-corridor transmission constraints; the figures do not measure how much trade any one interconnector would add.
Plotted: 9 observations with the measure “traded share of matched energy”. 5 other observations use a different or undefined measure and are in the record's table only. Record: Untraded matched energy.
Imported share of Namibia's electricity, three figures that measure different things
Period
Share
What is measured
Out of (denominator)
Source
FY2024 (Jul 2023–Jun 2024)
45.8%
imported share of electricity
units into NamPower's system, 4,676 GWh (p.23); 45.8% equals the four import sources (2,140 GWh) over that total by our arithmetic
NamPower Integrated Annual Report 2024 (year to 30 June 2024), p.14 (headline) and p.23 (units into system)Figure not yet checked by a person; matched word for word by machine.
Jan 2026
53.3%
imported share of electricity supplied
electricity supplied to the domestic economy, 458,193 MWh; imports 244,058 MWh
Namibia imports over half of electricity in January, article textFigure not yet checked by a person; matched word for word by machine.
Namibia relies on imports for 65% of electricity supply in August, article textFigure not yet checked by a person; matched word for word by machine.
Coverage. NamPower's 2023/24 financial year, and two months for which a press report of the Namibia Statistics Agency's figures was found.
What this does not establish. The annual figure is a share of units into NamPower's system; the monthly figures are shares of electricity supplied to the domestic economy. The denominators are not reconciled, so the rows are not a trend.
Amendment Act in force1 Jan 2025the Act commenced on 1 January 2025, except the section 1 amendments to the definitions of "reticulation" and "distribution power systems", which await a later proclamationProclamation Notice 236 of 2024, commencement of the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act 38 of 2024 · operative paragraph, PDF p.1 / printed Gazette p.3 · 1 Jan 2025paraphrase, not a quotationChecked by Codex (an AI reviewer), review of 10 Oct 2026 (the PDF body is an image; a secondary summary on golegal.co.za agrees)Competitive wholesale electricity market (SAWEM) under the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act
Virtual wheeling in commercial operationSep 2025the mechanism "moved from agreement to commercial operation in September 2025"; its first year ran "from 1 September 2025 to 31 August 2026"; "Monthly refunds have been processed since November 2025", following Eskom's "reconciliation and confirmation of Vodacom's monthly claims"Vodacom and Eskom mark first anniversary of South Africa's virtual wheeling mechanism · release text · Sep 2025wording checked against the documentWheeling on Eskom's network under existing arrangements (outside SAWEM)
Market Code submitted to NERSA25 Feb 2026NTCSA confirmed that "the Market Code was formally submitted to Nersa for approval on February 25."Launch of SAWEM delayed, but NTCSA says preparations are well advanced · article text · 25 Feb 2026not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: attributed to NTCSA; NERSA's consultation paper gives no submission dateCompetitive wholesale electricity market (SAWEM) under the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act
SAWEM trading internallyApr 2026"the internal launch of SAWEM, now operating with 32 participants"; internal trading launched in April 2026Operation Vulindlela progress report, Q1 2026/27 · p.6 · Apr 2026wording checked against the documentCompetitive wholesale electricity market (SAWEM) under the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act
Trading Rules comment period extended26 Aug 2026"NERSA announced on August 26" that the comment deadline, "initially August 28, 2026", was extended, so that the rules can be reviewed alongside the Electricity Pricing PolicyNERSA extends deadline for comments on revised electricity trading rules in South Africa · article text · 26 Aug 2026not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: NERSA's extension notice not found; nersa.org.za could not be reachedCompetitive wholesale electricity market (SAWEM) under the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act
Limited external participantstarget from the second quarter of 2027"phased introduction of limited external market participants from the second quarter of 2027"Written reply to parliamentary question NW3909 (Ms N S Sompa-Masiu), Minister of Electricity and Energy · reply text · target: from the second quarter of 2027not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personCompetitive wholesale electricity market (SAWEM) under the Electricity Regulation Amendment Act
Consultations to continue into 2026target 2026"These consultations will continue into 2026" (a forward statement; no 2026 consultation was found in the sources read)2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · target: 2026wording checked against the documentElectricity open access to transmission and distribution networks
Namibia
Modified Single Buyer trading beginsSep 2019the MSB was "implemented in September 2019"Modified Single Buyer (MSB) market model, consumer education page · web page text · Sep 2019not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personModified Single Buyer (MSB) market under the Electricity Act 2007
Market Rules gazetted19 Dec 2022the ECB's Modified Single Buyer Market Rules, published as General Notice 736 of 2022 in Government Gazette 7983Modified Single Buyer Market Rules, General Notice 736 of 2022 · Gazette 7983, title page · 19 Dec 2022paraphrase, not a quotationModified Single Buyer (MSB) market under the Electricity Act 2007
First export licence moratorium5 Mar 2024a moratorium effective 5 March 2024 for 18 months, imposed on the ECB's suggestion, citing "constrained transmission capacity on interconnections"Namibia halts issuance of licences to export electricity · article text · 5 Mar 2024not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: no ECB notice or Gazette notice for the first moratorium foundMoratorium on new generation licences for export
Wheeling framework and grid codes approved27 Mar 2025the ECB Board approved the revised wheeling framework and grid codes at a meeting "held on 27 March"; the Board also reviewed "the NamPower MSB office", including "the progress status regarding the establishment of a distinct structure"Electricity regulator approves revised Transmission Grid Code for enhanced power system · article text · 27 Mar 2025not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: the earlier wording did not match; replaced with the source's wording as the match report gives it; not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's framework document (v6.2) could not be fetchedModified Single Buyer (MSB) market under the Electricity Act 2007
Moratorium renewed5 Sep 2025the Minister renewed the moratorium on the ECB's recommendation, effective 5 September 2025, for 40 monthsECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · 5 Sep 2025paraphrase, not a quotationSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be readMoratorium on new generation licences for export
Moratorium's stated endtarget 5 Jan 2029the moratorium runs to 5 January 2029 "or until the existing transmission network constraints are alleviated"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · target: 5 Jan 2029not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be readMoratorium on new generation licences for export
Mozambique's access rules published; tariff left to ARENE7 Jul 2026"A concessionária de transporte e distribuição e o Gestor do Sistema Eléctrico Nacional devem permitir o acesso à respectiva rede de transporte a terceiros, de forma não discriminatória e em condições equiparáveis de qualidade, desde que haja capacidade disponível e não afecte os níveis regulamentares de qualidade, eficiência, segurança e fiabilidade do serviço e da operação do Sistema Eléctrico Nacional, mediante o pagamento de uma tarifa de trânsito."; "feito mediante o pagamento de uma tarifa de trânsito fixada em termos a regulamentar pela Autoridade Reguladora de Energia."In English: "The transmission and distribution concessionaire and the National Electricity System Manager must allow third parties access to the respective transmission network, in a non-discriminatory way and on comparable quality terms, provided there is available capacity and it does not affect the regulatory levels of quality, efficiency, safety and reliability of the service and of the operation of the National Electricity System, on payment of a transit tariff."; "subject to payment of a transit tariff set on terms to be regulated by the Energy Regulatory Authority."Machine translation from Portuguese, not yet checked by a personDecreto n.º 31/2026, de 7 de Julho, Regulamento para a Atribuição, Execução e Extinção de Concessões para a Produção, Transporte, Distribuição, Comercialização, Armazenamento, Importação e Exportação de Energia Eléctrica (Boletim da República, I Série, n.º 127) · printed p.1081 / PDF p.19 · 7 Jul 2026not yet checked by a personThird-party access to Mozambique's transmission network
ZiZaBoNa at financial close stage (PIDA)2019"S3B: Transaction Support & Financial Close (2019)"ZiZaBoNa Transmission Project, PIDA project database entry · project page, stage field (page carries no update date) · 2019not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: no SAPP or utility statement on the project's financial close was found; PIDA's database is the only stage tracker foundZiZaBoNa interconnector (Zimbabwe-Zambia component first)
NamPower outages affect NTCSA–ZESCO flows11 Nov 2025"On November 11 and 13, 2025, there was an outage in the Nampower network that affected the transmission of power from NTCSA to ZESCO and from ZPC to Nampower."SAPP Market Performance Report, November 2025 · PDF p.5, Outages · 11 Nov 2025wording checked against the documentNamPower network outages, 11 and 13 November 2025
ZiZaBoNa finance consultation17 Dec 2025SAPP and ZESA held a technical consultative meeting on 17 December 2025 "to explore readiness to mobilise financial resources and accelerate investment"SAPP Quarterly Report, October to December 2025 · p.7 (PDF page; printed page may differ) · 17 Dec 2025wording checked against the documentZiZaBoNa interconnector (Zimbabwe-Zambia component first)
ZiZaBoNa construction start (press report)target 2026"Construction is scheduled to begin in 2026, with commercial operations anticipated from 2028."Electricity wheeling could unlock regional power trade in Southern Africa · article text · target: 2026not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the article names no source for the dates; no SAPP or utility statement foundZiZaBoNa interconnector (Zimbabwe-Zambia component first)
Caprivi Link outagesMar 2026further Gerus-Zambezi HVDC outages on 11 March and 15 to 29 March 2026SAPP Quarterly Report, January to March 2026 · p.14 · Mar 2026paraphrase, not a quotationPlanned outages on the Caprivi Link (Gerus-Zambezi HVDC), November 2025 to July 2026
Mozambique–Malawi line energised (press report)8 Aug 2026"transmission line from Matambo Substation in Mozambique to Phombeya Substation in Malawi energised on August 8 2026"Malawi-Mozambique power line passes test · article text · 8 Aug 2026not yet checked by a personSecondary source: no EDM, ESCOM or Malawi ministry statement was foundMozambique-Malawi interconnector (Matambo-Phombeya, 400 kV)
Selected milestones; each idea's page lists every dated item. Hover a source marker for the passage and whether a person has checked it.
Blockers
Each card keeps apart the constraint the sources report, what is expected to relieve it (and who expects it), and how much trade it holds back.
PhysicalZimbabwe · Zambia
Central-corridor transmission limits leave matched energy untraded
The constraint
SAPP's market reports for the months read record part of the matched energy going untraded because of transmission constraints (between about a quarter and nearly three-quarters, depending on the month and the measure), and its April to June 2026 reports place the bottleneck at the Zimbabwe–Zambia interconnectors. Headline shares and table measures differ between reports and are not reconciled. Records: Untraded matched energy
Namibia freezes new generation licences for export
The constraint
Press reports of an Electricity Control Board statement say the freeze runs from September 2025 to January 2029, citing limited interconnector capacity in South Africa. Producers taking part in South African network upgrades are exempt once the South African utility confirms it, and battery plants exporting at night are exempt outright. Records: Freeze on new export generation licences
Expected to relieve it
No source read says which project would lift the constraint, or names the South African lines that limit exports.
Outages on transit routes affect trade between other countries
The constraint
SAPP reports that NamPower network outages on 11 and 13 November 2025 affected transmission from NTCSA to ZESCO. SAPP's quarterly report lists Caprivi Link converter work on the same dates. That the two are the same event is inferred from the dates; no SAPP document links them. Records: NamPower outages, Caprivi Link outages
Consultation is the last verified step for operating rules in both new markets
The constraint
In South Africa and Zambia the last verified step for the new markets' operational instruments is a consultation; no later adoption was found in the sources read. This is a shared stage, not a shared cause. Records: New wholesale market (SAWEM), Open access to the networks
Expected to relieve it
Adoption of the instruments themselves would close this; no adoption date is documented.
Mozambique's network access: no transit tariff found, and EDM runs the system in the interim
The constraint
Mozambique's 2022 Electricity Law and its July 2026 regulation give third parties non-discriminatory access to the transmission network, where capacity allows and service quality is not affected, on payment of a transit tariff that the regulator ARENE is to set. No such tariff was found. The law gives system and market operation to an autonomous body. Until that body's statute is approved, the regulation assigns those functions to EDM, the state utility that also owns the network. Records: Network access in Mozambique, Mozambique's independent system operator
Expected to relieve it
The regulation leaves the transit tariff to ARENE and the operator's statute to the Council of Ministers. Neither was found, and no date was found for either.
Elsewhere
West Africa has taken a different route: ERERA's transmission pricing methodology of 19 March 2026 says no cross-border tariff is charged, and transit grids are instead compensated through amounts the regional operator proposes and ERERA approves each year, passed through national tariffs. Record: West Africa's transmission pricing
For each blocker: the records that establish it, what is expected to relieve it and in whose view, and every institution those records name, by country. The arrow is a cited expectation; no role or order is drawn unless a record cites it.
Central-corridor transmission limits leave matched energy untraded
3 institutions in 3 jurisdictions are named: SADC, Zimbabwe, Zambia. Their roles (who decides, funds or implements) are not yet recorded.
ZiZaBoNa interconnectorin the view of Southern African Power Pool "This is expected to relieve transmission congestion in the central corridor."SAPP Quarterly Report, October to December 2025 · p.8 (PDF page; printed page may differ)wording checked against the documentDelivery Unknown · target 2026Funding Unknown
Outages on transit routes affect trade between other countries
5 institutions in 5 jurisdictions are named: Namibia, South Africa, Zambia, Zimbabwe, SADC. Their roles (who decides, funds or implements) are not yet recorded.
The regulation leaves the transit tariff to ARENE and the operator's statute to the Council of Ministers. Neither was found, and no date was found for either.
Institutions the area's records name. 2 cited roles on this area's reforms are shown on each reform's page, and under a blocker where that reform is expected to relieve it. The others are named without a role.
Connections between countries, each with the evidence it rests on and what it does not establish.
Shared challenge
Both countries have the law in force and are widening access to existing markets in layers, at different stages. In each, the last verified step for operational instruments is a consultation, and no later adoption was found in the sources read (South Africa: Market Code hearing on 1 July 2026 and a Trading Rules consultation extended to 28 September 2026, according to a press report; Zambia: seven operational drafts consulted in August 2025, after the market guidelines and pricing methodology were approved in 2025). Trading is documented in both: South Africa's virtual wheeling has operated outside SAWEM and settled monthly since late 2025, and GreenCo sold 572.12 GWh in Zambia in 2025, 14.33 GWh of it on SAPP markets. Which access instruments GreenCo's trades used is not established.
What the evidence establishes
Legal and consultation steps supported by primary sources; Zambian approvals and GreenCo volumes checked by the reviewer in the ERB report.
NERSA "published a revised version of the Electricity Trading Rules as well as the Market Code ... for public comment" NERSA "published a revised version of the Electricity Trading Rules as well as the Market Code ... for public comment"Operation Vulindlela progress report, Q1 2026/27 · p.6-7 · Q2 2026wording checked against the document
"Finalise the Electricity Trading Rules and Market Code following submission of public comments" (September 2026) "Finalise the Electricity Trading Rules and Market Code following submission of public comments" (September 2026)Operation Vulindlela progress report, Q1 2026/27 · p.7, Next Steps · target: Sep 2026wording checked against the document
"the internal launch of SAWEM, now operating with 32 participants"; internal trading launched in April 2026 "the internal launch of SAWEM, now operating with 32 participants"; internal trading launched in April 2026Operation Vulindlela progress report, Q1 2026/27 · p.6 · Apr 2026wording checked against the document
"the successful launch of external trading in early 2027" "the successful launch of external trading in early 2027"Operation Vulindlela progress report, Q1 2026/27 · p.6; p.7 roadmap · target: early 2027wording checked against the document
the mechanism "moved from agreement to commercial operation in September 2025"; its first year ran "from 1 September 2025 to 31 August 2026"; "Monthly refunds have been processed since November 2025", following Eskom's "reconciliation and confirmation of Vodacom's monthly claims" the mechanism "moved from agreement to commercial operation in September 2025"; its first year ran "from 1 September 2025 to 31 August 2026"; "Monthly refunds have been processed since November 2025", following Eskom's "reconciliation and confirmation of Vodacom's monthly claims"Vodacom and Eskom mark first anniversary of South Africa's virtual wheeling mechanism · release text · Sep 2025wording checked against the document
drafts out for stakeholder comment from 11 August 2025, deadline "Sunday, 24th August 2025" drafts out for stakeholder comment from 11 August 2025, deadline "Sunday, 24th August 2025"Invitation for stakeholder feedback on draft open access documents · consultation notice · 11 Aug 2025wording checked against the document
"Statutory Instrument (SI) No. 40 of 2024: The Electricity (Open Access) Regulations." "Statutory Instrument (SI) No. 40 of 2024: The Electricity (Open Access) Regulations."2025 Energy Sector Report · p.xvi, key regulations · 2024wording checked against the document
"During the period under review and in line with the Electricity (Open Access) Regulations, Statutory Instrument (S.I.) No. 40 of 2024, the ERB approved Electricity Open Access Market Guidelines and the Electricity Open Access Transmission and Distribution Pricing Methodology." No approval day is given. "During the period under review and in line with the Electricity (Open Access) Regulations, Statutory Instrument (S.I.) No. 40 of 2024, the ERB approved Electricity Open Access Market Guidelines and the Electricity Open Access Transmission and Distribution Pricing Methodology." No approval day is given.2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
approved in the same sentence as the Market Guidelines (quoted above); no approval day is given approved in the same sentence as the Market Guidelines (quoted above); no approval day is given2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
"the ERB has also issued the Notice of Variation to the System Operator licence to accommodate new functions of the System Operator in S.I. 40 of 2024. A new trading licence for ZESCO as the designated Public Service Trader under the new Market Structure was approved." "the ERB has also issued the Notice of Variation to the System Operator licence to accommodate new functions of the System Operator in S.I. 40 of 2024. A new trading licence for ZESCO as the designated Public Service Trader under the new Market Structure was approved."2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
the seven documents "were drafted and underwent extensive stakeholder consultations" in 2025 the seven documents "were drafted and underwent extensive stakeholder consultations" in 20252025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
"These consultations will continue into 2026" (a forward statement; no 2026 consultation was found in the sources read) "These consultations will continue into 2026" (a forward statement; no 2026 consultation was found in the sources read)2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · target: 2026wording checked against the document
"the transmission and distribution network service providers comprising ZESCO, CEC and NWEC launched the open access application digital platforms" "the transmission and distribution network service providers comprising ZESCO, CEC and NWEC launched the open access application digital platforms"2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
Table 3-2 counts 7 Wheeling Agreements and 5 System Operations Agreements among the 135 agreements the ERB approved in 2025. Appendix 1 lists all twelve with ZESCO as one party; the wheeling agreements total 435.00 MW of contracted capacity (Gouli 135.00; six others 50.00 each) and the system operation agreements 250.00 MW Table 3-2 counts 7 Wheeling Agreements and 5 System Operations Agreements among the 135 agreements the ERB approved in 2025. Appendix 1 lists all twelve with ZESCO as one party; the wheeling agreements total 435.00 MW of contracted capacity (Gouli 135.00; six others 50.00 each) and the system operation agreements 250.00 MW2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-2, printed p.35 / PDF p.56; Appendix 1, printed p.76 / PDF p.97 · 2025wording checked against the document
GreenCo's 2025 sales total "572.12 GWh": "14.33 GWh" in "SAPP Competitive Market Sales" and "557.79 GWh" in "Domestic Client Sales" GreenCo's 2025 sales total "572.12 GWh": "14.33 GWh" in "SAPP Competitive Market Sales" and "557.79 GWh" in "Domestic Client Sales"2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-10 "GreenCo Monthly Electricity Sales (GWh) in 2025", printed p.49 / PDF p.70 · 2025wording checked against the document
GreenCo's 2025 purchases total 737.86 GWh as stated: SAPP market 259.38, Chisamba Solar PV 115.63, bilateral imports 24.37, and "Emergency Imports via ZESCO" 338.37 (the four columns sum to 737.75). The table does not say which access arrangement each channel used. Its stated challenges include that "the company relied on limited emergency imports" (s.3.2.5.8.4) GreenCo's 2025 purchases total 737.86 GWh as stated: SAPP market 259.38, Chisamba Solar PV 115.63, bilateral imports 24.37, and "Emergency Imports via ZESCO" 338.37 (the four columns sum to 737.75). The table does not say which access arrangement each channel used. Its stated challenges include that "the company relied on limited emergency imports" (s.3.2.5.8.4)2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-9 "GreenCo Monthly Electricity Purchases (GWh)", printed p.49 / PDF p.70 · 2025wording checked against the document
Figure 3-6 shows 2025 imports of 278,760 MWh (GreenCo), 485,628 (Kanona), 686,671 (CEC) and 2,119,698 (ZESCO). The text says "IPTs undertook imports totalling 278.76GWh from Copperbelt Energy Corporation Plc (686.67GWh), Kanona Power Company Limited (485.63GWh) and GreenCo Power Services Limited (278.76 GWh)" Figure 3-6 shows 2025 imports of 278,760 MWh (GreenCo), 485,628 (Kanona), 686,671 (CEC) and 2,119,698 (ZESCO). The text says "IPTs undertook imports totalling 278.76GWh from Copperbelt Energy Corporation Plc (686.67GWh), Kanona Power Company Limited (485.63GWh) and GreenCo Power Services Limited (278.76 GWh)"2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.2.3.1 and Figure 3-6, printed p.43 / PDF p.64 · 2025wording checked against the document
Potential learning
Arrangements for reaching SAPP differ. Zambia's draft Trading Guidelines give two routes: participants that meet SAPP requirements can join SAPP directly, and others participate indirectly through the Market Operator, which aggregates their orders; non-members using that gateway sign a Regional Power Pool Gateway Participation Agreement. South Africa's Market Code consultation material also proposes two routes: trading directly and through the NTCSA Market Operator, which would bid into SAPP's day-ahead market on the basis of national orders, with the NTCSA System Operator as balance-responsible party toward SAPP. Nothing in it is presented as decided. Eskom's 2026 wheeling policy leaves cross-border trading and wheeling to a separate policy.
What the evidence establishes
Both designs and the Eskom policy's scope are confirmed in the documents cited below.
"Competitive short-term trading in the Open Access Market shall initially be conducted through the" "Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) market"; participants "who meet the SAPP requirements can apply to become SAPP Market Participants"; for others, "The MO shall aggregate their order and thereby enable them to indirectly participate in the SAPP market." "Competitive short-term trading in the Open Access Market shall initially be conducted through the" "Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP) market"; participants "who meet the SAPP requirements can apply to become SAPP Market Participants"; for others, "The MO shall aggregate their order and thereby enable them to indirectly participate in the SAPP market."Draft Open Access Market Trading Guidelines (dated 8 Aug 2025) · s.2.1.2, p.5wording checked against the document
"The gateway shall be maintained for ESs/CCs who are not SAPP members"; users "shall sign the Regional Power Pool Gateway Participation Agreement (GWPA)" "The gateway shall be maintained for ESs/CCs who are not SAPP members"; users "shall sign the Regional Power Pool Gateway Participation Agreement (GWPA)"Draft Open Access Market Trading Guidelines (dated 8 Aug 2025) · s.2.5.1(d)-(e), p.7 (under heading 2.4, numbered as printed)wording checked against the document
trading both directly and through the NTCSA MO is called "The optimal solution"; "The NTCSA MO will participate in the SAPP DAM based on their orders in the national market"; "The NTCSA SO will still remain BRP for South Africa towards SAPP" trading both directly and through the NTCSA MO is called "The optimal solution"; "The NTCSA MO will participate in the SAPP DAM based on their orders in the national market"; "The NTCSA SO will still remain BRP for South Africa towards SAPP"Market Code Consultation WS 6: International Trade. How will this be managed in SAWEM? (Keith Bowen) · slides 6 and 8 (counted)wording checked against the document
excludes "Wheeling to/from other countries outside South Africa, as cross-border trading and wheeling will be addressed in a separate policy" excludes "Wheeling to/from other countries outside South Africa, as cross-border trading and wheeling will be addressed in a separate policy"Wheeling of energy and net-billing policy, Rev 2 · cl. 3.1.1, scope · Jul 2026wording checked against the document
Joint action or dependency
Constraints outside either country's domestic reform affect trade between them. SAPP reports that NamPower outages in November 2025 affected transmission from NTCSA to ZESCO, and locates the central-corridor bottleneck at the Zimbabwe-Zambia interconnectors in April to June 2026. SAPP expects the ZiZaBoNa project to relieve central-corridor congestion.
What the evidence establishes
(1) Regional constraints affecting trading: supported by SAPP observations. (2) ZiZaBoNa expected to relieve a documented constraint: SAPP's expectation, attributed. Context: the ERB approved two 2025 power supply agreements with South Africa's transmission company, "ZESCO and National Transmission Company South Africa" (no capacity given) and Kanona Power Company with NTCSA (100.00 MW), so contracted SA-Zambia trade exists (ERB Energy Sector Report, Appendix 1, printed p.76 / PDF p.97; quote checked against the report).
"The primary bottleneck was located along the central corridor, specifically at the interconnectors between Botswana and Zimbabwe, as well as between Zimbabwe and Zambia." "The primary bottleneck was located along the central corridor, specifically at the interconnectors between Botswana and Zimbabwe, as well as between Zimbabwe and Zambia."SAPP Market Performance Report, November 2025 · p.4 (inferred)wording checked against the document
"On November 11 and 13, 2025, there was an outage in the Nampower network that affected the transmission of power from NTCSA to ZESCO and from ZPC to Nampower." "On November 11 and 13, 2025, there was an outage in the Nampower network that affected the transmission of power from NTCSA to ZESCO and from ZPC to Nampower."SAPP Market Performance Report, November 2025 · PDF p.5, Outages · 11 Nov 2025wording checked against the document
"The primary bottleneck was located along the central corridor, specifically at the interconnectors between Zimbabwe and Zambia." "The primary bottleneck was located along the central corridor, specifically at the interconnectors between Zimbabwe and Zambia."SAPP Market Performance Report, June 2026 · p.4 (inferred); same sentence in the April and May reportswording checked against the document
SAPP and ZESA held a technical consultative meeting on 17 December 2025 "to explore readiness to mobilise financial resources and accelerate investment" SAPP and ZESA held a technical consultative meeting on 17 December 2025 "to explore readiness to mobilise financial resources and accelerate investment"SAPP Quarterly Report, October to December 2025 · p.7 (PDF page; printed page may differ) · 17 Dec 2025wording checked against the document
"This is expected to relieve transmission congestion in the central corridor." "This is expected to relieve transmission congestion in the central corridor."SAPP Quarterly Report, October to December 2025 · p.8 (PDF page; printed page may differ)wording checked against the document
"Statutory Instrument (SI) No. 40 of 2024: The Electricity (Open Access) Regulations." "Statutory Instrument (SI) No. 40 of 2024: The Electricity (Open Access) Regulations."2025 Energy Sector Report · p.xvi, key regulations · 2024wording checked against the document
"During the period under review and in line with the Electricity (Open Access) Regulations, Statutory Instrument (S.I.) No. 40 of 2024, the ERB approved Electricity Open Access Market Guidelines and the Electricity Open Access Transmission and Distribution Pricing Methodology." No approval day is given. "During the period under review and in line with the Electricity (Open Access) Regulations, Statutory Instrument (S.I.) No. 40 of 2024, the ERB approved Electricity Open Access Market Guidelines and the Electricity Open Access Transmission and Distribution Pricing Methodology." No approval day is given.2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
approved in the same sentence as the Market Guidelines (quoted above); no approval day is given approved in the same sentence as the Market Guidelines (quoted above); no approval day is given2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
"the ERB has also issued the Notice of Variation to the System Operator licence to accommodate new functions of the System Operator in S.I. 40 of 2024. A new trading licence for ZESCO as the designated Public Service Trader under the new Market Structure was approved." "the ERB has also issued the Notice of Variation to the System Operator licence to accommodate new functions of the System Operator in S.I. 40 of 2024. A new trading licence for ZESCO as the designated Public Service Trader under the new Market Structure was approved."2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
the seven documents "were drafted and underwent extensive stakeholder consultations" in 2025 the seven documents "were drafted and underwent extensive stakeholder consultations" in 20252025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
"These consultations will continue into 2026" (a forward statement; no 2026 consultation was found in the sources read) "These consultations will continue into 2026" (a forward statement; no 2026 consultation was found in the sources read)2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · target: 2026wording checked against the document
"the transmission and distribution network service providers comprising ZESCO, CEC and NWEC launched the open access application digital platforms" "the transmission and distribution network service providers comprising ZESCO, CEC and NWEC launched the open access application digital platforms"2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.1.4, printed p.36 / PDF p.57 · 2025wording checked against the document
Table 3-2 counts 7 Wheeling Agreements and 5 System Operations Agreements among the 135 agreements the ERB approved in 2025. Appendix 1 lists all twelve with ZESCO as one party; the wheeling agreements total 435.00 MW of contracted capacity (Gouli 135.00; six others 50.00 each) and the system operation agreements 250.00 MW Table 3-2 counts 7 Wheeling Agreements and 5 System Operations Agreements among the 135 agreements the ERB approved in 2025. Appendix 1 lists all twelve with ZESCO as one party; the wheeling agreements total 435.00 MW of contracted capacity (Gouli 135.00; six others 50.00 each) and the system operation agreements 250.00 MW2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-2, printed p.35 / PDF p.56; Appendix 1, printed p.76 / PDF p.97 · 2025wording checked against the document
GreenCo's 2025 sales total "572.12 GWh": "14.33 GWh" in "SAPP Competitive Market Sales" and "557.79 GWh" in "Domestic Client Sales" GreenCo's 2025 sales total "572.12 GWh": "14.33 GWh" in "SAPP Competitive Market Sales" and "557.79 GWh" in "Domestic Client Sales"2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-10 "GreenCo Monthly Electricity Sales (GWh) in 2025", printed p.49 / PDF p.70 · 2025wording checked against the document
GreenCo's 2025 purchases total 737.86 GWh as stated: SAPP market 259.38, Chisamba Solar PV 115.63, bilateral imports 24.37, and "Emergency Imports via ZESCO" 338.37 (the four columns sum to 737.75). The table does not say which access arrangement each channel used. Its stated challenges include that "the company relied on limited emergency imports" (s.3.2.5.8.4) GreenCo's 2025 purchases total 737.86 GWh as stated: SAPP market 259.38, Chisamba Solar PV 115.63, bilateral imports 24.37, and "Emergency Imports via ZESCO" 338.37 (the four columns sum to 737.75). The table does not say which access arrangement each channel used. Its stated challenges include that "the company relied on limited emergency imports" (s.3.2.5.8.4)2025 Energy Sector Report · Table 3-9 "GreenCo Monthly Electricity Purchases (GWh)", printed p.49 / PDF p.70 · 2025wording checked against the document
Figure 3-6 shows 2025 imports of 278,760 MWh (GreenCo), 485,628 (Kanona), 686,671 (CEC) and 2,119,698 (ZESCO). The text says "IPTs undertook imports totalling 278.76GWh from Copperbelt Energy Corporation Plc (686.67GWh), Kanona Power Company Limited (485.63GWh) and GreenCo Power Services Limited (278.76 GWh)" Figure 3-6 shows 2025 imports of 278,760 MWh (GreenCo), 485,628 (Kanona), 686,671 (CEC) and 2,119,698 (ZESCO). The text says "IPTs undertook imports totalling 278.76GWh from Copperbelt Energy Corporation Plc (686.67GWh), Kanona Power Company Limited (485.63GWh) and GreenCo Power Services Limited (278.76 GWh)"2025 Energy Sector Report · s.3.2.3.1 and Figure 3-6, printed p.43 / PDF p.64 · 2025wording checked against the document
Joint action or dependency
Namibia's ability to export depends on South Africa's grid. The ECB gives limited transmission capacity on interconnectors in South Africa as the reason for renewing its moratorium on generation licences for export, and makes one of its two exemptions (IPPs in NTCSA upgrades) conditional on NTCSA's confirmation. A second interconnector to South Africa was half built by May 2025, with Eskom's section incomplete at an undated point. In July 2026 the two governments committed to "strengthen collaboration in electricity generation and transmission".
What the evidence establishes
(1) A constraint exists: the ECB says so, as reported by the press; the primary statement has not been read. (2) The new interconnector is expected to relieve it: no source read says so; this is not established. (3) A specified amount of Namibian export is prevented: unresolved.
the Minister renewed the moratorium on the ECB's recommendation, effective 5 September 2025, for 40 months the Minister renewed the moratorium on the ECB's recommendation, effective 5 September 2025, for 40 monthsECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · 5 Sep 2025paraphrase, not a quotationSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
the moratorium runs to 5 January 2029 "or until the existing transmission network constraints are alleviated" the moratorium runs to 5 January 2029 "or until the existing transmission network constraints are alleviated"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · target: 5 Jan 2029not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
"limited transmission capacity on interconnectors in neighbouring South Africa continues to restrict electricity exports" "limited transmission capacity on interconnectors in neighbouring South Africa continues to restrict electricity exports"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article textnot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
exempted are plants with battery storage "intended specifically for night-time electricity export to the SAPP" (no condition attached), and IPPs taking part in NTCSA network upgrades, "subject to formal confirmation from the South African utility" exempted are plants with battery storage "intended specifically for night-time electricity export to the SAPP" (no condition attached), and IPPs taking part in NTCSA network upgrades, "subject to formal confirmation from the South African utility"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article textnot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: the earlier wording did not match; replaced with the source's wording as the match report gives it; not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
NamPower's section was built between November 2024 and May 2025, as the "second interconnector to Eskom" NamPower's section was built between November 2024 and May 2025, as the "second interconnector to Eskom"NamPower projects page (Obib-Oranjemund 400 kV interconnector; Auas-Kokerboom) · projects page, Obib-Oranjemund entry · May 2025paraphrase, not a quotation
the third portion "is the construction by Eskom of the line from Orange River to the Oranjemond substation in South Africa - however this portion has not yet been completed" (the page spells it Oranjemond) the third portion "is the construction by Eskom of the line from Orange River to the Oranjemond substation in South Africa - however this portion has not yet been completed" (the page spells it Oranjemond)NamPower projects page (Obib-Oranjemund 400 kV interconnector; Auas-Kokerboom) · projects page, Obib-Oranjemund entrynot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: the earlier wording did not match; replaced with the source's wording as the match report gives it; not yet checked by a person
the 4th Bi-National Commission on 17 July 2026 signed seven agreements, none on energy, and committed to "strengthen collaboration in electricity generation and transmission" and to "accelerating implementation of the Kudu Gas Power Project" the 4th Bi-National Commission on 17 July 2026 signed seven agreements, none on energy, and committed to "strengthen collaboration in electricity generation and transmission" and to "accelerating implementation of the Kudu Gas Power Project"SA, Namibia strengthen ties with seven agreements · article text, Bi-National Commission communiquenot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a person
Joint action or dependency
Power runs through the South Africa–Namibia link in both directions of the policy story. Namibia relied on imports for about half its supply in the periods read, much of it from Eskom. Its exports are capped by South Africa's transmission. And its own Caprivi Link sits on a route used for South Africa–Zambia supply, so Namibian maintenance can affect a trade it is not party to.
What the evidence establishes
Import shares come from NamPower's 2024 annual report and press reports of statistics agency figures, all unverified. The moratorium rests on press reports. The Caprivi Link's place on the NTCSA–ZESCO route rests on matching dates across two SAPP reports.
the Minister renewed the moratorium on the ECB's recommendation, effective 5 September 2025, for 40 months the Minister renewed the moratorium on the ECB's recommendation, effective 5 September 2025, for 40 monthsECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · 5 Sep 2025paraphrase, not a quotationSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
the moratorium runs to 5 January 2029 "or until the existing transmission network constraints are alleviated" the moratorium runs to 5 January 2029 "or until the existing transmission network constraints are alleviated"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article text · target: 5 Jan 2029not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
"limited transmission capacity on interconnectors in neighbouring South Africa continues to restrict electricity exports" "limited transmission capacity on interconnectors in neighbouring South Africa continues to restrict electricity exports"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article textnot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
exempted are plants with battery storage "intended specifically for night-time electricity export to the SAPP" (no condition attached), and IPPs taking part in NTCSA network upgrades, "subject to formal confirmation from the South African utility" exempted are plants with battery storage "intended specifically for night-time electricity export to the SAPP" (no condition attached), and IPPs taking part in NTCSA network upgrades, "subject to formal confirmation from the South African utility"ECB renews moratorium on electricity generation licences for exports · article textnot yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: the earlier wording did not match; replaced with the source's wording as the match report gives it; not yet checked by a personSecondary source: the ECB's statement and any Gazette notice could not be read
"11&13 November NamPower Caprivi Link HVDC Converter at Zambezi and Gerus substations to implement control … system modifications required for operation in reduced voltage mode" "11&13 November NamPower Caprivi Link HVDC Converter at Zambezi and Gerus substations to implement control … system modifications required for operation in reduced voltage mode"SAPP Quarterly Report, October to December 2025 · p.9 (by index) · 11 Nov 2025not yet checked by a personChecked by machine match on the editor's PC, 18 Oct 2026: word for word (docs/quote-machine-match-2026-10-18.md); not yet checked by a person
Evidence limits
What the records do not establish, said once here rather than on every claim. Coverage says what was read; the lists say what it leaves open.
Coverage
Nineteen records across South Africa, Zambia, Namibia, Mozambique, Malawi and the Southern African Power Pool, from two worked examples (South Africa and Zambia; South Africa and Namibia) and a draft set of Mozambique records whose main sources are in Portuguese. Other SAPP members appear only as actors. Parliamentary records are not used, except through SA Policy Space. This is not a full account of electricity trade in the region.
How much trade or investment each blocker holds back
Whether SAWEM external trading has begun; Operation Vulindlela targets early 2027, the Minister's reply of 30 July 2026 places a phased introduction of limited external participants from the second quarter of 2027, and no traded volumes were found.
How much trade uses Zambia's new open-access instruments specifically.
Whether a specified amount of SA-Zambia trade is being prevented, and whether ZiZaBoNa would unlock it. No evidence connects the affected transactions to the remedy.
Which way the two ZESCO and Kanona agreements with NTCSA run, and how much energy has flowed under them. Appendix 1 gives parties and contracted capacity only.
Whether South African or Zambian traders' bids are among those not traded.
No source attributes the untraded energy to a specific government decision.
Which South African corridor limits exports, and whether the Obib-Oranjemund line or South Africa's Independent Transmission Projects would relieve it.
Whether the November 2025 outages SAPP's market and quarterly reports describe are the same event.
Open questions
How much trade any of these blockers prevents.
Which South African lines limit Namibian exports.
Whether SAWEM external trading has begun.
How much Zambian trade uses the new open-access instruments.
Whether ARENE has set Mozambique's transit tariff, and who buys Cahora Bassa's power after Eskom's contract ends in 2030.
Whether commercial trade has begun on the Mozambique–Malawi line.
The sceptic's case · Mike Muller (2018)
Did SADC energy cooperation fail, and did countries turn inward?
Muller argues that dependence on cheap South African coal power led to weak planning elsewhere, and that when Eskom's surplus became a deficit, weak regional institutions could not counter national pressures, so countries turned to national self-sufficiency.
His claim
What the records show
Not established
Shocks in one system pass to its neighbours.
Shocks now arise in more than one place: Zambia's regulator records 2025 emergency imports via ZESCO, and outages in Namibia affected South Africa–Zambia flows. Open access to the networksNamPower outages
Where Zambia's emergency imports came from, under which instrument, and at what price.
Weak rules, and bilateral deals rather than a rules-based market.
